Interpretation of the Population Table 2009
Note. This is part of an ongoing document by Stephen Moore and will be updated.
Introduction
This document is intended as a summery of the Population Table 2009. The table figures are as accurate as possible. The true figures could never be implicated into any table as land and population numbers continue to change on a daily, weekly basis. Therefore the table is not 100% accurate and is intended to be as accurate a possible to show the information the table is intended for. All population figures are from the CIA World Fact book, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbooks unless otherwise stated. The calculation for the times overpopulated come about from the available land in each given country which can be used to grow food or for farm land, pasture land. This also includes the living space of human beings. Once this percentage is known then the first part of the calculation is complete.
For example, Looking at Afghanistan, Total land mass is 647,500 sq km. Percentage of arable land is 12% and percentage of permanent pasture land is 46%. To correctly find out how much of Afghanistan’s 647,500 sq km is available for humans to use you add the percentage of arable land to the percentage of pasture land. For Afghanistan this equals 58%. Therefore 58% of 647,500 equals 375,550 sq km.
For the next part of the calculation, how overpopulated a country is, a figure must be known on how much space a human needs to live in balance with other humans and nature as well as living a comfortable life for the human. For this figure I have used a figure from “Overpopulation Bomb”, http://us.figu.org/portal/SocialIssues/OverpopulationBomb/tabid/105/Default.aspx
“A few words must be directed toward food production. A mere 12% of the entire Earth's landmass surface is entirely arable for agricultural and horticultural purposes. The remainder of the planet's surface consists of areas that cannot be cultivated, such as mountains, rocky terrains, tundras, arid regions, forests and deserts. However, the 12% arable land is not proportional to the mass of humanity, because one single human being requires by nature a living space of 83,333 square meters (99,665 sq. yds.), and 4000 square meters, or 63.245 x 63.245 meters (4784 sq. yds. or 69.166 x 69.166 yards) of fertile ground or garden soil is required to feed him- or herself. Calculated for 6 billion people, this amounts to a total arable landmass requirement of approximately 24 million square kilometers (9.3 million square miles). Such an expanse is not available, however, because the entire planet's 12% arable land amounts to 18 million square kilometers (7.0 million square miles) – 6 million square kilometers (2.3 million sq. mi.) less than the 6 billion-strong humanity requires for adequate food production.”
Therefore 87333 sq m required per person (83333+4000 sq m) is needed. 87333 sq m converts to 0.087333 sq km required per person
Next, the current population of a country is needed. This number is never a current or accurate number. Population figures are changing every day and indeed every minute of a day. Also not included are not all the unknown births and humans of a given country. Afghanistan’s population was estimated in July 2009 to be 33,609,937.
Once the population figure is known the second part of the calculation can be made on how much land is needed for this population given the required needed land from “Overpopulation Bomb”. To calculate the required land mass for the Afghan population you times 33,609,937 by 0.087333. Therefore 33,609,937 times 0.087333 equals 2935256.63 sq km.
Now the final calculation can be made from the results. The percentage overpopulated calculation consists of dividing the result of the second part of the calculation by the result of the first part of the calculation. 2935256.63 (result of second calculation) divided by 375,550 (result of first calculation) equals 7.82. Therefore Afghanistan is 7.82 times overpopulated.
What is the Population Table telling us
On the Population Table there is a figure “Possible Population”. For Afghanistan the possible population is 4,506,600. So how does this figure come about? There is a given allowance that 12 humans may occupy a living space of 87,333 square meters. This means a building which can house 12 humans may exist. So to calculate the possible population of Afghanistan you take the total land mass and times it by 12. 647,500 times by 12 equals 7,770,000. Then to calculate the possible population you times 7,770,000 by the percentage of available land for humans. For Afghanistan the percentage is 58%. This equals 4,506,600 which is the possible population of Afghanistan to which all human life is balanced without destroying flora or fauna of the country.
Firstly the most obvious information the Population Table is telling us is how much the Earth is overpopulated. This is broken down into countries. Each country has its own calculation. There are exceptions regarding countries overpopulation. Australia, Botswana, Kazakhstan, Mauritania, Mongolia, Namibia and Sahara Occidental (Western Sahara) are not overpopulated. Their population figure and percentage is below the possible population. Therefore, theoretically these countries should not suffer any effects from the total overpopulation of Earth.
However, from the table we can see that there are countries that have no or very little percentages of Arable and Pasture land. Singapore, for example has a population of 4,657,542 and 1% total percentage of available land. The total land mass of Singapore is 682.7 sq km. This means the population of Singapore has no room to grow food for itself. There maybe natural Fruits that grow in Singapore, existing farms and also fishing but these cannot sustain a population of 4,657,542. Logically the required food for Singapore has to be imported.
If we look at each country on the Population Table we see that most are also overpopulated. The percentage varies from country to country. This means that these countries do not have enough room to grow food for their respective populations. Thus food importation must be carried out to sustain populations. So where is this food coming from?
From an Australian governmental website - http://www.aph.gov.au/library/Pubs/BN/2008-09/AustFreeTradeAgreements.htm - “With no domestic agricultural production, Singapore relies on food imports. Australian food exports (meat, dairy products, fresh fruit and vegetables) account for 15 per cent of total exports to Singapore and are the largest export item after crude oil.”
From a Singapore governmental website - http://www.mnd.gov.sg/newsroom/Speeches/speeches_2006_27062006.htm - “In Singapore, we import about 90% of our food, making us vulnerable to supply disruptions at source countries. The safety of food materials coming into Singapore for direct consumption or further processing is therefore one of AVA’s key concerns. In recent years, emergence of animal and plant diseases in many parts of the world is a major cause of concern. We must have systems and processes in place to safeguard our food supply from such threats."
From the two above governmental websites we can see that 15% of exports from Australia to Singapore includes food and is second inline to crude oil. Singapore imports 90% of its food and is 59554.48 times overpopulated.
Hong Kong has a land mass of 1,042 sq km. 5% of Hong Kong’s land mass is available as Arable land and 1% is available as Pasture land. Calculation of possible population for Hong Kong is 750. Hong Kong’s estimated population in July 2009 was 7,055,071 which calculates Hong Kong to be 9855.09 times overpopulated.
While Hong Kong has 6% total land available for food growing with a population of 7,055,071 (9855.09 times overpopulated) there is not enough available land to sustain the population. Like Singapore, Hong Kong must import most of its food supplies to sustain a population of 7,055,071.
From an Australian governmental website - http://www.austrade.gov.au/Food-and-beverage-to-Hong-Kong/default.aspx -“With a population of almost seven million and a significant tourism industry (a total of 29.5 million visitors in 2008), Hong Kong is a substantial market for all kinds of food products. Hong Kong can be characterised as a food import-dependant market, there is minimal domestic agricultural production and a small food processing industry. Hong Kong is also a trading hub for re-exports into mainland China, Macau and other neighbouring markets in Asia. While there is increasing demand for various kinds of convenient food items, consumers are becoming more health conscious about what they eat (eg. healthy diet, concerns over GMO, interest in organic food). As a result, we are seeing an increasing trend towards healthy, functional and organic foods which is reflected in the introduction of more of these products in the retail channels.”
Australia being under populated or not overpopulated there is major demands from Australia from overpopulated countries for food.
From the information on the Population Table there is evidence that it is not only countries that are classed as third world countries (developing countries) that are suffering from overpopulation. This means that it is not an issue of how rich a country is or how much power or influence a country has in global markets or territories. Bangladesh, as well as others, is classed by the United Nations as third world countries (developing countries). Bangladesh has an estimated population of 156,050,883, total land mass 133,910 sq km, Arable land 55.4% and Pasture land of 5%. This calculates Bangladesh to be 168.5 times overpopulated. With a total of available land of 60.4% of 133,910 sq km for use by humans the possible population for Bangladesh is 970,419. Though Bangladesh has 60.4% available land for use by humans the total land mass is 133,910 sq km which means that the available land is 80,881.64 sq km. 80,881.64 sq km is not enough to sustain Bangladesh’s 156,050,883 population and is only enough to sustain a possible population of 970,419.
United States of America (USA) being a developed country, like Singapore and Hong Kong, is also suffering from overpopulation. Total land mass of USA is 9,161,923 sq km, Arable land 18%, Pasture land 26%. The total land available for humans to use in USA is 44% or 4,031,246.12 sq km. The possible population of USA calculates to 48,374,953. The current population was estimated in July 2009 to be 307,212,123. Therefore USA is 6.66 times overpopulated. We see from these figures that USA has a large total land mass and 44% of the total land mass available for human use. This allows for a large possible population for the USA. However with a current population of 307,212,123 there is not enough available land to sustain USA’s population.
So from the Population Table we clearly see that the wealth, political status, development, influence in world markets has nothing to do with countries and their respective overpopulation problems.
The total land mass of a given country is not the governing factor alone to how many humans can live in that country. The percentage of available land of the total land mass is the governing factor. Russia has a total land mass of 16,995,800 sq km and is the large country on Earth given the figures from the population Table. Russia has 7% Arable land and 6% Pasture land which total 13% available land for use by humans. 7% of the total land mass of Russia equals 2,209,454 sq km.
China has a total land mass of 9,326,410 sq km, 15% Arable land and 43% Pasture land which totals 58% of China’s total land mass. 58% of China’s total land mass equals 5409317.8 sq km available for human use. Looking at these two countries the figures show that Russia being the largest country with a total land mass of 16,995,800 sq km can only sustain a population lower then China which has a total land mass of 9,326,410 sq km. The governing factors to the possible population of a country are not the total land mass alone but the percentage of the total land mass of the country which is available for human use. Russia’s possible population is 26,860,162 while China’s possible population is 64,755,130. China having a smaller total land mass is able to sustain 37,894,968 more humans due to having more available land within their country for human use. This available land is Russia 2,209,454 sq km and China 5409317.8 sq km. Therefore we see that large countries may only be able to sustain a lower number of humans then smaller countries when the available land is calculated.
The total possible population of Earth from the figures on the Population Table is 563,167,585. The current estimated population from the figures on the table is 6,779,140,655. Clearly a huge difference of 6,215,973,070. Therefore the Earth, going by the totals on the Population Table, has 6,215,973,070 to many humans living.
Implications for life on Earth
The implications to life on Earth that arise from human overpopulation covers many areas, from food shortages, water shortages, destruction of the environment from pollution - household and industrial waste, climate change, more Earthquakes, exploitation of the Earth resources and the list goes on. Indeed to cover more crime, prostitution, human trafficking, human immigration and so on.
The Population Table tells us that the possible population for Earth is around 563,167,585 humans. This number is calculated from the available land which the Earth human can use without destruction of the environment from deforestation, toxic and none toxic pollutants and waste, soil erosion from over use and weather erosion of Arable land and deforestation, building on fields and land for town and city expansion and many more. With an estimated 6,779,140,655 plus humans on Earth now we are expanding our cities and towns beyond the capacity of the available land. This means that cities and towns expand due to the need to build more housing, either flats or apartments or housing estates, to cope with the number of increasing humans. With an increasing number of humans means an increase in the need for more industry, energy and land fill waste sites. This expansion destroys more land which could be used for food growing and more land that is natural, containing trees, wild plants and animals.
As well as destroying the environment from city expansion is the increasing need of wood. Wood is used for furniture, fires, industry as well as others. Logically the more housing and industry expansion increases the more demand for wood increases. Thus more forests are destroyed due to the demand of human consumption. We are destroying more trees then we are planting. With deforestation the soil erodes and water run off becomes more apparent creating landsides and destruction
Nepal is 54.44 times overpopulated and has an estimated population of 28,563,377. Deforestation in Nepal due to overpopulation and the demand for more land is causing landslides and floods. From the website upiasia.com - http://www.upiasia.com/Society_Culture/2009/10/12/deforestation_aids_floods_and_landslides_in_nepal/5923/ - “Successive governments paid lip service to preserving Nepal's natural beauty and little was done to protect forests. Deforestation is so rampant that presently only 29 percent of the country's forests remain. So, it is no surprise that every year swollen rivers cause so much havoc and destruction because there are no forests standing to block their way.
The same goes for landslides. Uncontrolled population growth and rapid urbanization has pushed people to cut trees and build houses in their place.
Outside of Kathmandu valley, hills that were once covered with trees and vegetation are no longer in sight, their place taken by houses. When rain comes, there are no trees to hold the land and it slides down taking houses and people with it.
In some parts of the country, community efforts keep a close guard on surviving forests and actively police the area to keep loggers and unauthorized firewood collectors out. This is a remarkable public effort but unfortunately pales in comparison to the scale of the problem.”
Caraga (Philippines) is 119.57 times overpopulated and has an estimated population of 97,976,603. Deforestation in Caraga is also due to overpopulation and causing landslides and floods From the website mindanao.com - http://mindanao.com/blog/2009/01/continuing-deforestation-blamed-on-caraga%E2%80%99s-severe-flooding-landslides/ - “Floods after floods including landslides in the past that cost lives and destroyed properties seem not to make people learned lessons, this time different environmentalist and concerned groups who made earlier warnings repeatedly before, issued ultimatum that if greed won’t stop if not minimize Caraga Region will suffer disaster unimaginable in scale in not a distant future.
This developed after they blamed continuing deforestation brought about by indiscriminate cutting of trees by untouchable, influential illegal loggers, log poachers and illegal miners whose cartel is run like a huge syndicate group in cahoots with corrupt government men as the culprit behind current flooding and landlsides that already kiled eight people and affecting 1 83,646 residents in Caraga Region.
They claimed massive deforestation was also brought by kaingin farmers and migration of population to rural and forested areas to seek lands to till.”
